All current understanding (theoretical and observational) suggests that the development of the solar wind and CMEs takes place within 10 Rs, particularly below 4 Rs. This seemingly narrow spatial region encompasses the transition of coronal plasma processes through the entire range of physical regimes from fluid to kinetic, and from primarily closed magnetic field structures to primarily open. For these reasons, we refer to it as the Critical Coronal Transition Region (CCTR). Its comprehensive exploration will answer two of the most central Heliophysics questions with repercussions across NASA and society. Here, we outline a path to answer these questions in the next 30 years.

We attempt to construct a timeline of The Hunga Tonga – Hunga Ha’apai eruption on 15 January 2022 through analyses of seismic, barometric, infrasonic, lightning, and satellite data. Satellite imagery at 04:00 UTC showed no ash in the air, but by 04:10 UTC, a plume had risen to 18 km. Over the next 20 minutes, the plume rose to 58 km. USGS determined that Mw5.8 volcanic earthquake of unknown mechanism had occurred at 04:14:45. Gravity waves were observed in satellite imagery, and barometric and infrasound stations around the world recorded ultra-low frequency pressure variations of more than 100 Pa, inducing ground-coupled airwaves around the globe, and meteo-tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea and Mediterranean Sea. Tsunami waves were recorded in coastal areas around the Pacific Ocean. From record sections, we determined speeds of 3.9 km/s and 299 m/s for the initial seismic and infrasound signals respectively, converging to an eruption onset time of ~0402 UTC ± 1 minute. The global pressure pulse has a speed of ~314 ± 3 m/s, consistent with theoretical models for Lamb waves (Bretherton, 1969), suggesting an origin time of ~0415 ± 2 minutes (consistent with the Mw5.8 volcanic earthquake, and sharp increases in lightning flash rates), and peaking around ~0429 ± 2 minutes. We suggest that Surtseyan volcanic activity commenced at ~04:02, building to a sub-Plinian eruption ~7 minutes later, before a phreato-Plinian eruption commenced at ~04:14. The peak Lamb wave amplitude at the closest station (757 km from HTHH) was 780 Pa. Assuming geometrical spreading like 1/√r (where r is the source-receiver distance), we estimate a lower bound of ~23 kPa for reduced pressure by extrapolation back to 1 km. Adding a near field term that decays like 1/r, we estimate an upper bound of 170 kPa for reduced pressure. Comparison of these values with those from other eruptions (McNutt et al. in this session) suggests the 15 January HTHH eruption was in the VEI 5-6 range.

Accurate loss assessment plays a vital role in understanding the economic risk of natural hazards, for planning, mitigation, and actuarial purposes. Because of its juggernaut status as the most widespread and costly hazard, both nationally and around the world, loss assessment due to flood is particularly important. One of the shortcomings in existing flood loss models is to partition the structure (or building) economic value of loss into that borne by the homeowner and that covered by flood insurance. The goal of this research is to model the loss incurred by the homeowner and that incurred by the National Flood Insurance Program, considering flood damage, building replacement value, flood insurance coverage amount, deductible, and flood characteristics (slope and y-intercept of the loss vs. return period curve). A Monte Carlo approach is used to calculate the annual average loss due to flood at the individual homeowner scale. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) models are trained to provide the output of the owner’s share of the loss. The CART model outperformed the MLR model with lower RMSE and MSE values and a higher R² value (0.95) on the test data set. Because out-of-pocket expenses due to flood can be devastating to financial security, the results of this study support and inform the proactive decision-making process that homeowners can use to self-assess their degree of preparation and vulnerability to the flood hazard.

Scientific ocean drilling through the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) and its predecessors, has a far-reaching legacy. They have produced vast quantities of marine data, the results of which have revolutionized many geoscience subdisciplines. Meta-analytical studies from these efforts exist for micropaleontology, paleoclimate, and marine sedimentation, and several outstanding resources have curated and made available elements of offshore drilling data, but much of the data remain heterogeneous and dispersed. Each study, therefore, requires reassembling a synthesis of data from numerous sources; a slow, difficult process that limits reproducibility and slows the progress of hypothesis testing and generation. A computer programmatically-accessible repository of scientific ocean drilling data which spans the globe will allow for large-scale marine sedimentary geology and micropaleontologic studies and may help stimulate major advances in these fields. The eODP project, funded through the NSF’s EarthCube program, seeks to facilitate access to and visualization of these large microfossil and stratigraphic datasets. To achieve these goals, eODP will be linking and enhancing three existing database structures: Open Core Data (OCD), the Paleobiology Database (PBDB), and Macrostrat. Over the next three years, eODP will be accomplishing the following goals: (1) enable construction of sediment-grounded and flexible age models in an environment that encompasses the deep-sea and continental records; (2) expand existing lithology and age model construction approaches in this integrated offshore-onshore stratigraphically-focused environment; (3) adapt key microfossil data into the PBDB data model from OCD; (4) develop new API-driven web user interfaces for easily discovering and acquiring data; and (5) establish user working groups for community input and feedback. This project is targeting shipboard drilling-derived data, but the infrastructure will be put in place to allow the addition of other shore-based information. The success of eODP hinges upon interaction, feedback, and contribution of the scientific ocean drilling community, and we invite anyone interested in participating in this project to join the eODP team.

The renewable energies have confirmed their potential to reshape the energy matrix of several countries, in the last two decades, reinforcing the set of actions to better protect the environment. For instance, the solar and wind sources of energy production can dim the production and release of pollutants associated to electricity production. Unfortunately, the atmospheric temperature rise has been linked to the increase of the gas emissions, such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Methane (CH4), from manifold sources, such as the thermal power stations for electricity generation. The Amazon basin has caught special importance for Brazil and abroad, and more recently, the use of satellites, fixed instrumented stations and airborne surveys has provided data focused on studies of the environment impact. This work deals with the assessment of the solar irradiation on the Manaus city, the largest city in the Western Amazon region, using Data Science tools, in a way to help the evaluation of the renewable energy in that region.

Sara Tirado Tolosa1

Addressing the need for convergence of different sources of knowledge to deal with complex issues such as global change, this paper presents the results of collaboration between artists and scientists to study social-ecological-technological systems (SETS). We focus on informal roads as an example of SETS. In the absence of public roads local, mostly indigenous communities and others use these forestry roads, seismic line clearings and oil and gas service roads for mobility in Siberian taiga affected by extractive industry. In 2020, with COVID-19, we had to increase our emphasis on virtual forms of data gathering, interpretation, and representations of the results. Presented in this paper forms of transmedia storytelling are designed to allow audience and users as well as the local and indigenous communities to get familiar with the research results, give feedback, and provide their own perspectives, interrelations and interdependencies between different SETS components.

In this study we introduce a pair of idealized tracers to quantify how changes in physical advection and mixing under climate change affect the nutrient supply, new production, and particulate export rates. The low cost and simplicity of these tracers allows us to explore the sensitivity of the model biogeochemistry, and in particular its response to a changing physical environment, to the choice of model parameters. Using CESM2.1 with active ocean and ice only, at nominal one-degree resolution, under initial conditions and forcing representative of 2000 and 2100, our idealized nutrient and particulate are within the spread of nitrate and export from CMIP5 models. The simple form of the tracers allows us to identify the physical controls on the changing rates of supply, production, and export throughout the year, which together form the different seasonal cycles. We find that the ocean basins with the largest changes in the seasonal cycle over the 21st century are the North Atlantic, the Arctic, and the eastern tropical Pacific. We present results comparing the controls across basins, focusing on shifts in the timing of deepening mixed layers and maximum production rate in the northern North Atlantic through the Arctic, and changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of vertical advective exchange in the tropics and subtropics of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In both cases we discuss how much these changes depend on the biogeochemical model parameter values.

Stomatal conductance (SC) was utilized to indicate the rate of gas and water exchange through stomata on the leaf surface. When crops are experiencing water stress during the daytime, their stomata will close to prevent water loss. However, the crop will also receive less CO2 for photosynthesis under this condition. Consequently, accurate and efficient SC prediction can improve irrigation efficiency, particularly in the present day when water is scarce. The common way to estimate SC nowadays is to make predictions using other variables that can be measured quickly, such as conventional regression analysis. The limitation of conventional regression analysis is that it does not account for changes in SC when crops are subjected to both prolonged drought and high temperature stress. We intend to use time series prediction techniques, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), to determine the correlation between variables at different time scales. The objective of this study is to (1) Investigating the relationship between SC and persistent weather patterns. (2) Predict SC based on continuously collected soil moisture, plant canopy temperature and weather information. In this study, we measured the SC of soybean and maize by using a handheld leaf porometer. This was then compared to short-term historical crop SC predictions based on canopy temperature, soil moisture, and weather conditions. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and LSTM based on Recurrent neural network (RNN) are used to predict SC, and the results are compared with the conventional modeling method. More details will be presented at the NAPPN conference.

Arsenic (As) pollutes large regions of Asia. Despite phytoremediation initiatives using hyperaccumulators to remove As from contaminated soil, farmers remain reluctant to employ such strategies because of the low biomass and economic value of hyperaccumulating plants. In this study, we demonstrate that cassava can be used for As remediation using a high-throughput root phenotyping platform for cassava roots that we previously developed [1]. Using this phenotyping platform, we identified contrasting root traits associated with As uptake for the two genotypes Rayong 11(R11) and Rayong 90 (R90). Both cassava varieties were grown in pot systems under control (0 mg kg-1 As) and high As (50 mg kg-1 As) conditions and harvested 120 days after planting. We found As stress to reduce shoot and plant dry weight by 57% and 53%, respectively, whereas root dry weight and root traits showed only a slight change. Under As stress, R11 had a 75% higher nodal root number and a 59% lower basal root number than R90. Moreover, R11 root (100 mg kg-1 As) and branch (9 mg kg-1 As) tissues had considerably higher As concentrations than the same tissues in R90. The bioaccumulation coefficient for R11 (2.1) was significantly greater than for R90 (0.9). Additionally, bioethanol yields were unaffected by the presence of As in cassava starch. We suggest that cassava is a promising crop for phytoremediation and that root phenotyping is essential to breed cassava varieties with enhanced As uptake.

The principal structural elements of the Himalayan arc can be traced more or less continuously for nearly 2500 km. It is therefore understandable that along-strike variations in structure and denudation have not received the same attention as equivalent arc-normal trends. However, it is now clear that arc segmentation can be controlled by lateral variations in the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The Bhutan Himalaya has a distinctive physiography and hosts nominal modern seismicity despite experiencing long-term strain accommodation comparable to the wider arc. This enigmatic section of the orogen presents an opportunity to test the case for local arc segmentation through applied tectonic geomorphology. By integrating low temperature thermochronology, cosmogenic radionuclide methods and quantitative geomorphometry, this study documents the spatial and temporal variability of denudation to infer partitioning of deformation across crustal structures. Laboratory methods include apatite fission track (AFT), and (U-Th)/He dating of zircon from in situ bedrock, synorogenic sediments and modern detrital samples. Additionally, 10Be concentrations from detrital quartz samples adds to a nation-wide compilation of previously published data. Results suggest prominent along- and across-strike variation in deformation within Bhutan. High normalised channel steepness and hillslope characterise a prominent east-west trending zone of elevated millennial-scale erosion rates. Here termed the Naka Zone, this geomorphic region is coincident with the estimated rupture extent of an early 18th Century great earthquake and terminates to the east in the vicinity of the Kuru Chu reentrant in the Main Central Thrust (MCT). Greater Himalaya basement rocks west of the Sakteng Klippe show a phase of rapid, monotonic cooling, the timing of which is largely latitude-dependent, consistent with exhumation above a mid-crustal ramp on the MHT ~100 km from the front followed by horizontal translation above the AFT partial annealing zone. This framework explains the decoupling of AFT ages in sampled catchments from millennial-scale erosion rates. Small catchments that straddle the MCT show bimodal distributions in single grain AFT ages, suggestive of activity on the MCT during the late Miocene. Further, central ages show a marked decrease towards Arunachel Pradesh, suggesting that in far eastern Bhutan the mid-crustal ramp extends towards the foreland, possibly invoking a lateral ramp. Synorogenic detrital thermochronometers are unreset and thus provide information on source area bedrock cooling and provenance. ZHe and AFT age distributions in the Siwaliks are bimodal. Comparisons with large modern drainage systems links a young age peak (Mio-Pliocene) to the Greater Himalaya and a dominant older age peak (Mid Miocene) to the Lesser Himalaya and points to persistent elevated topography in the range front east of Kuru Chu.

Jinjeong Lee, Su Jung Ra, Sung Mi Kim, Eunhee Kim, Myeong-Jin Kang,

A document by Sierra Young. Click on the document to view its contents.

Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) appear frequently in science fiction and other public depictions of extraterrestrial technology. Recent interest in understanding UFOs, also known as Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon (UAP), has increased due to a recent report published by the U.S. Department of Defense that confirmed the detection of several UAP. However, actually identifying such objects remains challenging because “sociocultural stigmas and sensor limitations remain obstacles to collecting data on UAP” according to the report. In this presentation, we discuss the challenges posed by popular conceptions of UAP to genuine scientific inquiry using examples from Carl Sagan’s archives. This discussion is intended to engage astrobiologists in thinking critically about the differences between scientific inquiry of a genuinely unknown phenomenon and non-scientific popular speculations about the identity of UAP.

We present evidence of damping of equatorial noise due to Finite-Larmor-radius (FLR) effect in the inner Van Allen belt. Detail observation of the FLR phenomenon in the inner belt region has not been reported until now. Waves primarily damped by the FLR mechanism can influence the energy dependent proton density structure. We analyze a typical case recorded by the Van Allen probe that involves FLR damping of equatorial noise, which was propagating radially towards the Earth, at L-shell ~1.7. As a result of this damping, protons in the energy range of ~18 – 21 MeV at L-shell ~1.7 – 2 get energized. This kind of wave-particle interaction should be included in the future models of the inner Van Allen belt. This phenomenon may also account for the unknown proton loss mechanism reported in Selesnick and Albert (2019).

Resource allocation drives the above-ground distribution of mass in grass plants across discrete developmental units called phytomers. Although the number of phytomers varies in genetically-identical grasses, there frequently isn't an associated variance in some summary phenotypes. To understand what may be driving this, we tracked the growth of 30 S. italica plants from genotypes B100 and A10.1. We experimentally observed that plants from the genotype B100 had between 20 and 22 phytomers, while plants from the genotype A10.1 had between 7 and 9 phytomers. B100 plants with more phytomers (e.g., 22) did not grow taller or have more total leaf length, despite having more leaves than plants with fewer phytomers (e.g., 20). A10.1 plants with more phytomers (e.g., 9) did grow taller and had more total leaf length than those with fewer phytomers (e.g., 7). We developed a dynamical model to determine if these patterns are emergent from the underlying growth structure. The model is parameterized using the number of phytomers and related developmental time parameters: leaf emergence, stem and leaf elongation time, panicle emergence, and flowering time. The model uses the semi-sequential nature of phytomer growth as its structure. The model predicts that differences in timing of the shift to reproductive growth could explain the patterns observed. Experimental measurements suggest this shift is primarily due to tuning the developmental time parameter controlling the units contributing to the stem, rather than leaves.

Most studies on the impacts of extreme hydrometeorological events on hydrological processes have focused primarily on surface water systems rather than groundwater systems. This study explores and seeks to untangle the complex nature of groundwater dynamics and resilience across British Columbia (BC) in response to the 2021 heatwave-intensified drought and atmospheric rivers (ARs). Historically, there have been many episodic drought events along with substantially wet periods. However, 2021 marked an unprecedented year for the immediate co-occurrence of intense and extreme drought and deluge. This weather whiplash resulted in the lowest and highest groundwater levels on record for many wells across BC. The record meteorological drought, intensified by a 13-day heatwave in late June, affected the entire province and lasted for over 50 days in the south coast region. This was followed in November by the most intense ARs to make landfall on record in southwestern BC. Groundwater hydrograph anomalies for 2021 were computed relative to their short-term historical mean for 194 provincial observation wells across the province. The 2021 anomalies showed a limited but distinct range of responses to both the drought and ARs, and cluster into three response groups, largely associated with their respective hydroclimatic regime. Many coastal wells showed a strong response to drought; however, nearly all wells in the southern interior responded substantially, with groundwater levels significantly below their historical range by late summer. Presently, groundwater levels seem to have recovered across the province, especially on the coast. This resiliency is attributed in part to the ARs that made landfall since last year along with a particularly wet, La Niña winter. The majority of coastal wells showed a much stronger signal to the ARs compared to the interior or eastern BC wells, likely due to the more rapid and intense rainfall experienced in southwestern BC. Groundwater systems across BC were variably impacted by these hydrometeorological extremes, showcasing the need for focused and area-specific approaches to water allocation decisions in assuring sustainable withdrawal practices.

Forest ecosystems are the largest terrestrial carbon sink and monitoring them effectively, particularly in the context of global change, requires rapid and accurate determination of tree functional traits that indicate forest health. Hyperspectral reflectance has the capacity to predict leaf traits non-destructively using multivariate statistical approaches. The ability of hyperspectral data to estimate tree physiochemical responses is affected by wavelength range selection and the influence of wavelength on accuracy of trait estimation is not well known, especially for more complex physiological processes. To bridge this knowledge gap, this study examined chemical and physiological responses of one-year-old black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) to a combination of biotic and abiotic stress events, including pathogen inoculation, water stress, nutrient deficiency, and salt deposition. Leaf photosynthetic-related, water-related, and chemical traits were paired with hyperspectral measurements spanning 350−2500 nm. A total of 100 different wavelength ranges were evaluated using PLSR to determine the variation prediction accuracy. Key findings indicated that incorporating short infrared wavelength ranges (1300−2500 nm) significantly enhanced trait prediction accuracy. In addition, this study also demonstrated that hyperspectral data can detect tree stress responses at fine-scale chemical and physiological levels that are in agreement with reference measurement responses to the different stressors. We suggest that hyperspectral reflectance can potentially offer a solution for monitoring forest health in multi-stress environments with an increase in the accuracy of trait estimations and an expansion of the classes of traits estimated.