To support decision-making processes aimed at mitigating flood impacts and groundwater depletion, this study aims to quantify the potential recharge effects of riparian restoration of floodplain functions. We hypothesize that since 1985, groundwater recharge in the Northern Rio Grande Basin has declined due to reductions in flood-irrigated agriculture, and that current recharge suitability in semi-arid basins is significantly associated with soil type/hydraulic conductivity, land use/land cover, precipitation, slope, and hydro-geomorphic opportunity. Using similar basins with known recharge, these parameters will be used to predict recharge potential, and in the Santa Cruz Basin, the top predicted suitability zones will align with geomorphic parameters known to support recharge (e.g., floodplains and irrigated lands), more often than random distribution would predict. Recharge estimation is approached in two stages. First, reductions in recharge since 1985 are estimated from observed declines in flood-irrigated agriculture. To reconstruct historical irrigation patterns, we developed a training dataset through interviews with local farmers, identifying irrigated and non-irrigated parcels across diverse land uses. Annual NDVI values (2005â2024) were extracted from Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9 imagery using Google Earth Engine (GEE), and sensor-specific NDVI thresholds were derived to improve classification consistency. These thresholds were then applied to classify irrigated land annually from 1985 to 2024. The preliminary results revealed a peak in irrigated area during the 1990s, followed by a decline in the 2000s, and partial recovery in the 2010s. Second, potential recharge from restoration is quantified by applying recharge rates reported in donor basins to Santa Cruz subareas identified through spatial suitability analysis. ArcGIS-based Weighted Overlay Analysis and Spatially Weighted Regression are used to link soil, land cover, precipitation, slope, and hydro-geomorphic opportunity with recharge suitability. MannâKendall tests and hydrological datasets are employed to validate temporal trends. This approach yields a spatial framework that (i) quantifies recharge decline linked to reduced irrigation since 1985, and (ii) identifies priority areas where restoration of floodplain connectivity and managed flooding could enhance recharge. The findings provide a transferable method to assess recharge decline and restoration potential in semi-arid basins facing water scarcity and land-use change.