Abstract
A regime shift is an abrupt, substantial, and persistent change in the
state of a system. We show that a regime shift in the September Arctic
sea-ice extent (SIE) occurred in 2007. Before 2007, September SIE was
declining approximately linearly. In September 2007, SIE had its largest
year-to-year drop (by a wide margin) in the entire 46-year satellite
record (1979-2024). Since 2007, September SIE has been approximately
constant, i.e., no long-term trend. The regime shift in 2007 was caused
by significant export and melt of older and thicker sea ice over the
previous 2 to 3 years, as documented in other studies. We test
alternatives to the traditional linear model of declining September SIE,
and discuss possible explanations for the lack of a trend since 2007.