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The Short-time Prediction of Thermospheric Mass Density Based on Ensemble-Transfer Learning
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  • Peian Wang,
  • Zhou Chen,
  • Xiaohua Deng,
  • Jingsong Wang,
  • Rongxin Tang,
  • Haimeng Li,
  • Sheng Hong,
  • Zhiping Wu
Peian Wang
School of Resources Environmental & Chemical Engineering, Nanchang University,Nanchang,China
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Zhou Chen
Institute of Space Science and Technology, Nanchang University, Nanchang, China

Corresponding Author:chenzhou760@foxmail.com

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Xiaohua Deng
Institute of Space Science and Technology, Nanchang University, Nanchang, China
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Jingsong Wang
National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration
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Rongxin Tang
Nanchang University, Institute of Space Science and Technology
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Haimeng Li
Institute of Space Science and Technology, Nanchang University
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Sheng Hong
School of Information Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang, China
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Zhiping Wu
Computing Institute of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China
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Abstract

Reliable short-time prediction of thermospheric mass density along the satellite orbit is always essential but challenging for the operation of Low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. In this paper, three machine-learning prediction algorithms are investigated, including the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), the Transformer, and the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) ensemble model of the above models. We use satellite data from CHAMP, GOCE, and SWARM-C to evaluate the robustness and accuracy of different density variations. The comparison demonstrates that all models achieve compelling predictions and are much better than NRLMSISE-00. The LightGBM ensemble model (LE-model) consistently outperforms others in accuracy and stability. Furthermore, when the obtained density data from the newly launched satellites are limited, the trained LE-model can provide a valid prediction for the new satellite orbit by transfer learning. This study offers a promising insight into the short-time prediction of thermospheric mass density using ensemble-transfer learning and may be advantageous to future research on space whether.