The Short-time Prediction of Thermospheric Mass Density Based on
Ensemble-Transfer Learning
Abstract
Reliable short-time prediction of thermospheric mass density along the
satellite orbit is always essential but challenging for the operation of
Low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. In this paper, three machine-learning
prediction algorithms are investigated, including the Bidirectional Long
Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), the Transformer, and the Light Gradient
Boosting Machine (LightGBM) ensemble model of the above models. We use
satellite data from CHAMP, GOCE, and SWARM-C to evaluate the robustness
and accuracy of different density variations. The comparison
demonstrates that all models achieve compelling predictions and are much
better than NRLMSISE-00. The LightGBM ensemble model (LE-model)
consistently outperforms others in accuracy and stability. Furthermore,
when the obtained density data from the newly launched satellites are
limited, the trained LE-model can provide a valid prediction for the new
satellite orbit by transfer learning. This study offers a promising
insight into the short-time prediction of thermospheric mass density
using ensemble-transfer learning and may be advantageous to future
research on space whether.