A Case Study of the Effects of Aerosols on South China Convective
Precipitation Forecast
Abstract
Previous studies on South China’s convective precipitation forecast
focused on the effects of multi-scale dynamics and microphysics
parameterizations. However, how the uncertainty in aerosol data might
cause errors in quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) has yet to be
investigated. In this case study, we estimate the impact of aerosol
uncertainties on the QPF for South China’s severe convection using
convection-permitting simulations. The variability range of aerosol
concentrations is estimated with past observation for the pre-summer
months. Simulation results suggest that the rainfall pattern and
intensity change notably when aerosol concentrations are varied. The
simulation with low aerosol concentrations produces the most intense
precipitation, approximately 50\% stronger than the
high-concentration simulation. Decreasing aerosol hygroscopicity also
increases precipitation intensity, especially in pristine clouds. The
aerosol uncertainty changes alter the number of cloud condensation and
ice nuclei, which modifies the altitude and amount of latent heating and
thereby modulates convection.