Abstract
Cline theory has a central place in speciation studies. Cline locations
delimit taxon boundaries, cline widths scale with barrier strength, and
the shapes of clines (smooth or stepped) suggest whether species
barriers are mono- or polygenic. How cline shapes vary along chromosomes
therefore forms part of the genome species barrier landscape. Further,
asymmetric moving clines (wave fronts) can mark adaptive introgression
puncturing species barriers, potentially leading to their collapse or
decay. Here we review the development of cline and wavefront models and
relate this to the use of dispersal kernels in epidemiology and ecology.
We contrast classical results to those for a thick-tailed kernel,
showing how cline shape affects the speed of spatial process, including
the widening of neutral clines and the spatial coalescent. We critique
current cline models used for inference (both spatial and genomic
clines) and address Barton’s question: Why (after decades of cline
fitting) is there so little evidence of stepped clines? We suggest
evidence is weak because stepped cline models are over-parameterised. We
propose minimum parameter stepped cline models, and discuss
non-parametric approaches, that may help resolve the issue. This
broadens to a discussion of the future of, and alternatives to, cline
fitting.