Weak signals, strong debates: Density dependence and population
regulation through the lens of model uncertainty
Abstract
Ecologists have long argued about the strength of density dependence and
population regulation, respectively defined as the short-term and
long-term rate of return to equilibrium. Here, I argue that we cannot
reliably quantify population regulation with time series data. An
analysis of the Global Population Dynamics Database reveals that
conclusions about population regulation are heavily dependent on model
choice, with no clear way to select a particular model. A parallel
debate in macroeconomics — regarding whether GDP shocks have
permanent effects — remains unresolved despite extensive research,
implying that the population regulation question is similarly
intractable. However, we can measure the short-term property of density
dependence, which is moderate on-average and shows considerable
variation across populations: half-lives of perturbations typically last
0.7 to 4.2 years (interquartile range). Rather than a universal balance
of nature, stability varies widely across populations in ways that
correlate with life history and taxonomy.