Assessment of Rainfall Trends and Rainfall Extremes for Different Return
Periods in the Chittagong Region through Trend and Frequency Analysis
Using Best-Fit Probability Distributions
Abstract
To predict natural events such as intense precipitation, flooding, and
landslides, analyzing trends in rainfall patterns and conducting
frequency analysis using the most suitable probability distribution
function (PDF) is essential. The study aims to perform trend analysis
and conduct frequency analysis after determining the best-fit PDF based
on 35 years of annual rainfall data from 1988 to 2023 for nine stations
in the Chittagong division, Bangladesh. Sen’s Slope Estimator and the
Mann-Kendall trend model were used for trend analysis. Several PDFs,
such as Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type-III, Log Pearson
Type-III, Log-Normal, and Normal, were used, and return periods were
estimated. Three goodness-of-fit tests—the Anderson-Darling,
Chi-Square, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov—are performed to determine the
best-fit PDF. All stations showed a declining trend, except CL325 (which
exhibited an upward trend). Three of the stations showed statistically
significant trend lines, while the remaining stations were not. Among
the nine stations, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is
the best fit for five, the Log-Normal for two, the Normal for one, and
the Log Pearson Type-III for another, indicating that GEV is the most
suitable for rainfall frequency analysis. For the return period, CL325
showed more variation in rainfall, whereas CL302 showed less variation.
The findings of this study will enhance the understanding of current
rainfall patterns and provide valuable insights into predicting future
hydrological extremes, such as intense precipitation and flooding, in
the region.