Hormone Replacement Therapy Uptake and Discontinuation Trends from
1996-2023: an Observational Study of the Welsh Population
Abstract
Objective: To analyse prescribing trends for oral and
transdermal hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in Wales from 1996 to
2023, including predictors of discontinuation within one year of
initiation. Design: Observational study using the Secure
Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank. Setting:
Primary and secondary care data from Wales, encompassing 86% of the
population. Population: Annual HRT prescription rates from 1996
to 2023 were assessed for all women in Wales. Predictors of HRT
discontinuation within one year were assessed in women aged 40–65 (n =
103,114), excluding those with oophorectomy, hysterectomy, or premature
menopause. Methods: HRT prescription rates were normalised per
1000 people and categorised by HRT type, age groups, and deprivation
quintiles. Predictors of discontinuation were assessed using
zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Main Outcome
Measures: Annual HRT prescription rates and predictors of
discontinuation, including age, deprivation, time period, and HRT type.
Results: From 1996 to 2023, 189,593 women were prescribed oral
or transdermal HRT in Wales. Transdermal prescriptions rose
exponentially post-2021, while oral prescriptions declined post-2002.
Discontinuation rates followed a curvilinear trend: increasing at ages
40–43 and mid-50s onwards and decreasing in mid-40s to early 50s. Oral
formats were linked to decreased discontinuation, while transdermals
showed increased discontinuation. Deprivation reduced HRT prescriptions
overall. Prescriptions post-2000 predicted increased discontinuation,
with highest rates seen post-2021. Conclusions: Disparities in
HRT prescribing patterns reflect GP and patient perceptions of safety.
Women in mid-40s to early 50s, often at a natural menopause stage,
adhered better, particularly to oral tablets, suggesting administration
route and symptom relief influence adherence. Socioeconomic deprivation
remains a barrier to HRT access. Time trends highlight the influence of
widely publicised studies and media on uptake, albeit adherence has
continually declined since 2001. Additional research is needed to tackle
socioeconomic inequalities and assess strategies for achieving
cost-effective and efficient HRT prescribing practices.