Island population demography: Breeding dynamics and drivers of Gotland’s
iconic Golden Eagles
Abstract
Raptor populations on islands are limited by resource availability and
the dispersal possibilities for young birds, which are often determined
by the size of the island. This leads to differences in population
dynamics and viability compared to mainland populations. Human land use
modifications on islands—such as agriculture, forestry, excessive
hunting, and urban infrastructure development—may affect resource
availability and increase risks to these populations. Consequently, many
island raptor populations have been dramatically reduced or driven to
extinction and have never fully recovered. The conditions necessary for
their long-term persistence remain uncertain. Gotland, a large,
human-dominated island located in the Baltic Sea, is home to one of the
densest populations of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). However, the
drivers of population dynamics remain unknown, and many speculations
exist that require empirical testing. Approximately 86 Golden Eagle
territories were identified and surveyed across Gotland. We investigated
the spatial drivers of breeding dynamics in this eagle population,
evaluating the effects of habitat composition, prey density, and
neighborhood effects on territorial productivity. The average
productivity was 0.41 fledglings per pair, which varied annually, with
approximately 72% of territories occupied and 32% being successful.
Despite significant variation in habitat composition across territories,
spatial differences in productivity were primarily influenced by the
proportion of coniferous forest (nesting habitat), greater prey
diversity, the density of non-native roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and
the reproductive status of neighboring territories. Several novel
findings emerged: the role of roe deer as a potential prey species
introduced by humans has been previously underappreciated, proximity to
the coast was associated with increased productivity, and the variation
in spatio-temporal reproductive dynamics across neighboring territories
appears to influence overall population dynamics. We discuss the general
implications of these novel findings for the long-term conservation and
persistence of this iconic island population and similar populations
worldwide.