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Upward and northwest range shifts for endemic Lamiaceae medicinal herbs in the Third Pole
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  • Shou-Kui Wang,
  • Zhi-Peng Li,
  • Rui Wu,
  • Hai-Ling Qi,
  • Hong Ke,
  • Xiong-Hui Huang,
  • Ji-Hua Zhou,
  • Yong Tang,
  • Jiang-Hua Ran,
  • Yong Gao
Shou-Kui Wang
China Southern Power Grid EHV Transmission Company
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Zhi-Peng Li
Kunming Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Rui Wu
Kunming Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Hai-Ling Qi
Kunming Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Hong Ke
Yunnan Electric Power Design Institute Co Ltd of China Energy Engineering Group
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Xiong-Hui Huang
China Southern Power Grid EHV Transmission Company
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Ji-Hua Zhou
China Southern Power Grid EHV Transmission Company
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Yong Tang
China Southern Power Grid EHV Transmission Company
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Jiang-Hua Ran
Yunnan Electric Power Design Institute Co Ltd of China Energy Engineering Group
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Yong Gao
Yunnan Forestry Technological College

Corresponding Author:gaoqian1028@163.com

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Abstract

In response to climate change, alpine plants are migrating to higher altitudes and latitudes to track suitable habitats. In mountainous systems, plants may be trapped in limited areas at summits and unable to migrate further, a phenomenon termed ”nowhere to go.” To predict the responses to climate change of alpine plants in the Third Pole, the region with the highest flora, we used 4 endemic Lamiaceae alpine herbs as a model based on comprehensive data curation in the study area of the Third Pole (740 occurrence records) and 26 environmental variables using the Biomod2 ensemble model. The main results showed that the temperature–related climate factors dominate the shaping of species distribution and drive the range migration, in the future, Lamiaceae species are projected to migrate upwards and northward, and the Tibet Plateau (TP) is anticipated to become a migration destination for four Lamiaceae species, while the distribution of these species in the Hengduan Mountains is expected to decline significantly, indicating the stable and suitable areas at the summits of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains region (HHM) is crucial for ensuring the survival of alpine species amidst climate change. Our findings will not only help to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on alpine plants in the Third Pole, but will also provide a case study of ENM using a similar approach.
29 Nov 2024Submitted to Ecology and Evolution
30 Nov 2024Submission Checks Completed
30 Nov 2024Assigned to Editor
06 Dec 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned