Polypharmacy and Its Spatial Clustering in Japan: An Ecological Study
Using the Standardized Polypharmacy Ratio
Abstract
Aim: Polypharmacy, defined as the concurrent use of multiple
medications, poses significant health risks, particularly among aging
populations. While polypharmacy is a recognized concern, limited
research has investigated its spatial distribution or the demographic
and socioeconomic factors influencing its prevalence. This study aimed
to examine the spatial patterns of polypharmacy across Japan and
identify regional characteristics associated with higher polypharmacy
rates. Methods: An ecological study was conducted across 335 local
health units in Japan using data from national health, demographic, and
geographic databases. Polypharmacy was defined as prescriptions
containing seven or more drugs, and the standardized polypharmacy ratio
(SPR) was calculated by age-group population. Spatial autocorrelation of
SPR was assessed using Moran’s I statistic. Clustering analysis
incorporating SPR and regional variables identified distinct high-risk
areas. Results: The prediction model for polypharmacy prescriptions
achieved an R² of 0.98, indicating high accuracy, though SPR remained
heterogeneous. Significant spatial autocorrelation was observed for both
polypharmacy prescriptions (Moran’s I = 0.4; P < 0.001) and
SPR (Moran’s I = 0.24; P < 0.001), highlighting regional
clustering. Clustering analysis identified four groups by polypharmacy
risk (Critical, High, Moderate, and Low). High-SPR areas were associated
with higher population density, a greater proportion of younger adults
(ages 20–60), and increased levels of education, income, and tertiary
industry workers. Conclusion: Polypharmacy in Japan exhibits significant
spatial clustering, with higher rates in urbanized regions driven by
demographic and socioeconomic factors. Region-specific interventions
addressing these unique characteristics are essential for improving
polypharmacy management.