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Unveiling the Trends: Growing Atrial Fibrillation and Dementia related Mortality in Older Adults in the United States, 2000-2020
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  • Muhammad Umer Sohail,
  • Ruqiat Masooma Batool,
  • Muhammad Saad,
  • Saad Ahmed Waqas,
  • Muhammed Ameen Noushad,
  • Muhammad Ovais Sohail,
  • Matthew Bates,
  • Raheel Ahmed,
  • David Ripley
Muhammad Umer Sohail
Dow University of Health Sciences
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Ruqiat Masooma Batool
Dow University of Health Sciences
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Muhammad Saad
Dow University of Health Sciences
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Saad Ahmed Waqas
Dow University of Health Sciences
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Muhammed Ameen Noushad
University Hospitals Plymouth NHS Trust
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Muhammad Ovais Sohail
Conemaugh Memorial Medical Center
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Matthew Bates
James Cook University Hospital
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Raheel Ahmed
Imperial College London National Heart and Lung Institute

Corresponding Author:r.ahmed21@imperial.ac.uk

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David Ripley
Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust
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Abstract

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and dementia are increasingly prevalent in aging U.S. populations. Their association raises public health concerns, emphasizing the need to understand mortality trends in older adults. This study examines AF and dementia-related mortality trends from 2000 to 2020. Methods: Using the CDC WONDER Multiple Cause of Death database, we analyzed death certificates for individuals aged 65 and older, reporting age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 persons. Trends were assessed through annual percent change (APC) analysis via Joinpoint regression, with stratifications by sex, race/ethnicity, urbanization, and Census regions. Results: A total of 400,103 AF and dementia-related deaths were recorded between 2000 and 2020. The AAMR increased markedly from 25.4 in 2000 to 70.4 in 2020. The overall AAMR showed a steady increase from 2000 to 2018 (APC: +4.4%; 95% CI: 3.7–4.8), with a sharper rise from 2018 to 2020 (APC: +9.5%; 95% CI: 4.5–12.2; p < 0.001). Mortality rates were comparable between men (AAMR: 72.7) and women (AAMR: 71.6). NH White individuals exhibited the highest AAMR (47.0), followed by NH Black (26.6), Hispanic (23.1), and NH Asian/Pacific Islander (18.0) populations. Nonmetropolitan areas had higher AAMRs (48.1) compared to metropolitan areas (43.5). Regionally, the Western U.S. recorded the highest AAMR at 48.2, while state-level disparities showed a nearly threefold difference between the top 90th and bottom 10th percentiles. Conclusion: Rising AF and dementia-related mortality rates among older adults highlight a need for targeted screening and intervention, particularly for high-risk demographics and underserved regions.
14 Nov 2024Submitted to Journal of Cardiovascular Electrophysiology
15 Nov 2024Submission Checks Completed
15 Nov 2024Assigned to Editor
15 Nov 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
14 Dec 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned