Shared temporal increases in bill size among songbirds of the San
Francisco Bay Area are due to different seasonal selective pressures
Abstract
Museum specimens offer a unique and powerful tool for understanding the
impact of anthropogenic change on populations over time. Morphological
traits can be impacted by many different environmental variables that
are difficult to separate from one another as potential driving factors.
Comparative analyses among similar species jointly experiencing change
in the same environmental variables can help pinpoint the selective
pressures driving temporal morphological change. We assessed temporal
change in bill size, tarsus length, and body size between six species of
songbirds from the San Francisco Bay Area over the past 150 years.
Proxies for body size (wing and tarsus length) exhibited idiosyncratic
temporal changes among species. In contrast, we found a significant
increase in bill surface area across all but one species. Quantile
regression analyses on bill size variation additionally revealed that
temporal increases over the past century have been driven by increases
in the largest bill sizes in some species, but increases in the smallest
bills over time in others. The climate variables best explaining
temporal change in bill size also differed among species with some
species responding more to changing summer variables (e.g. maximum
annual temperature) and others in response to a changing winter climate.
These results together suggest that different sympatric, resident bird
species may be experiencing temporal morphological change in response to
selective pressures experienced at different seasons. Our finding
provides support for the season of critical thermal stress hypothesis
that suggests variation in functional traits will be shaped by the
season that imposes the greatest selective force on a population.
Overall, this study has important implications for future research on
the role of bills in thermoregulation and for conservation efforts based
on the adaptive capacity of birds to respond to climate change.