The influence of climatic factors on age-group-specific malaria burden
in western Kenya
Abstract
Background: Despite well-documented relationships between
climate and malaria transmission, there is a lack of information on how
precipitation and temperature as climatic factors specifically impact
malaria burden among different age groups in high-transmission areas in
western Kenya. Current models often overlook the time-lagged effects of
climate variables, such as precipitation and temperature, on age-group
specific malaria burden. Methods: This study utilized monthly
malaria positivity data from three health centers, along with climate
data from western Kenya by applying Negative Binomial mixed effects
models with both current and lagged climate variables. Interaction
plots, analysis of deviance, and goodness-of-fit tests were used to
assess the significance of some relationships or choose a model with a
better fit. Results: The study revealed that lagged
precipitation (Lag2) and temperature were significant predictors of
malaria positivity, with older age groups showing higher susceptibility.
Site-to-site and year-to-year variations were also identified as
important sources of variation to be considered. Conclusions:
The study highlights the importance of considering both age-specific
vulnerability and climatic influences in malaria control strategies,
suggesting the need for targeted interventions for malaria risk in
age-specific groups following the period of precipitation.