Changes in abundance and distribution of European forest bird
populations depend on biome, ecological specialisation and traits
Abstract
Forest bird populations in Europe have remained stable overall, unlike
the drastic decline in the populations of farmland species. However,
this apparent overall stability may hide large variation among species.
We aimed to determine if forest bird species with varying life histories
and biome distributions show different population trends. We used
functional traits and specialisation indices to study changes in
abundance and distribution of European forest bird populations, and to
identify “winner”, “loser”, and stable species. We defined change in
abundance as the population trend of each species over the last 40
years, and change in distribution as two components: range change (i.e.,
area shrinkage or expansion) and range shift (i.e., latitudinal
adjustments), both over the last 30 years. We also considered specialist
groups of different biomes (i.e., boreal, temperate, Mediterranean and
biome generalists) separately. We show that while Mediterranean and
temperate species have increased in abundance and range, probably as the
result of warmer temperatures and forest expansion in these regions,
boreal forest species have declined in abundance and range area. This
probably results from changes in forest structure and composition due to
forestry practices, increasing temperatures, and colonisation of
warm-dwelling species. Among boreal species, the ones related to mixed
forest (i.e., mix of broadleaf and coniferous trees) declined the most,
both in abundance and range, and shifted northwards. In contrast, for
vertebrate carnivores (i.e., birds of prey), we observed abundance
increase among Mediterranean species and southward expansion among all
species. We conclude that forest bird species in Europe are sensitive to
the combined effects of land use and climate change, and these effects
vary among the different biomes. Our results highlight the necessity of
maintaining and restoring key forest habitats (e.g. through increased
protected areas and extensive management) and halting or limiting
climate change, especially regarding boreal species.