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Short-term Load Interval Prediction with Unilateral Adaptive Update Strategy and Simplified Biased Convex Cost Function
  • +3
  • Shu Zheng,
  • Huan LONG,
  • Wei Gu,
  • zhi wu,
  • Jingtao Zhao,
  • Runhao Geng
Shu Zheng
Southeast University - Sipailou Campus
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Huan LONG
Southeast University

Corresponding Author:hlong@seu.edu.cn

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Wei Gu
Southeast University - China
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zhi wu
Southeast University - China
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Jingtao Zhao
NARI Technology Co Ltd
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Runhao Geng
Southeast University
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Abstract

This paper proposes a unilateral Adaptive update strategy based Interval Prediction (AIP) model for short-term load prediction, which is developed based on lower and upper bound estimation (LUBE) architecture. In traditional LUBE interval prediction model, the model training is usually trained by heuristic algorithms. In this paper, the model training is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem with the help of proposed unilateral adaptive update strategy and cost function. In lower-level problem, a simplified biased convex cost function is developed to supervise the learning direction of basic prediction engines. The basic prediction engine utilizes Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) to extract features and Full Connected Neural Network (FNN) to generate interval boundary. In upper-level problem, a unilateral adaptive update strategy with unilateral coverage rate is put forward. It iteratively tunes hyper-parameters of cost function during training process. Comprehensive experiments based on residential load data are implemented and the proposed interval prediction model outperforms the tested state-of-the-art algorithms.
Submitted to IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution
10 Apr 2024Submission Checks Completed
10 Apr 2024Assigned to Editor
10 Apr 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
15 Apr 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
30 Jul 20241st Revision Received
31 Jul 2024Submission Checks Completed
31 Jul 2024Assigned to Editor
31 Jul 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
31 Jul 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
13 Aug 2024Editorial Decision: Accept