Age-optimal vaccination strategy for respiratory infectious disease: a
constraint-dependant approach
Abstract
After the vaccine implementation for COVID-19, the WHO set a unified
vaccination approach to be adopted by all different countries. However,
given the various constraints including vaccine availability,
heterogeneous age distributions, and differing control measures across
countries, questions arise about the optimality of the WHO strategy. In
this study, we develop an age-structured SEIR epidemic model with
vaccinated and unvaccinated compartments to optimize age-targeted
vaccination strategies for COVID-19, incorporating realistic
constraints. The model equilibria and the basic reproduction number
$R_0$ are checked. Moreover, mathematical formulation and analysis of
optimal control problem, are conducted. The model is calibrated to
COVID-19 data and simulated to solve the optimal control problem under
various vaccination and distancing scenarios. Results demonstrate that
the optimal strategy strongly depends on the population age distribution
and contact patterns. Findings emphasize the significance of
age-specific disease transmission in designing vaccination priorities,
particularly when vaccine supplies are constrained. The model provides a
quantitative framework to inform optimal allocation strategies in a
general way that allows to adapt the model for other infectious diseases
exhibiting similar features to Covid-19.