NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF HIGH PUBLIC DEBT FOR HEALTH PLANNING: LESSONS FROM
COVID-19 PANDEMIC CRISIS IN EUROPE
Abstract
The goal of this study is to analyze why some countries have had a high
negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic crisis in terms of fatality rate
compared to others. In particular, this study endeavors to verify
whether statistical evidence supports the hypothesis that high general
government gross debt in countries generates a structural vulnerability
in socioeconomic and health systems to face emergencies, such as
COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The research setting here analyzes the
relationship between general government gross debt (as % GDP),
healthcare expenditures per capita, and COVID-19 case fatality in an
international context given by European countries. Empirical evidence
reveals that European countries having lower COVID-19 fatality rate in
2020 (1.40%, indicated as group 1) had also lower government gross debt
as % of GDP both in 2009 (50.79%) and 2019 (46.80%) than countries
with higher fatality rate (2.83% given by group 2) that had 81.49% in
2009 and 67.22% in 2019. In addition, group 1 has from 2009 to 2019 a
lower growth of government gross debt (% of GDP) given by 0.12 compared
to group 2, which experienced a high growth of 0.29 generating a high
burden for socioeconomic system and public finance. This structural
situation leads countries of group 1 with lower COVID-19 fatality rates
to support higher levels of health expenditure per capita (values higher
than $3,100 per capita), whereas countries with a higher COVID-19
fatality rate have health expenditure per capita lower than previous
group 1 (about $2,530 in 2009 and $2,600 in 2019) also for stringent
austerity policies imposed by European Union. Estimated relationship
shows that countries with 1% increase in the change of health
expenditure per capita over 2009-2019 (predicted values considering in
stage 1 the explanatory variable of government gross debt as % of GDP
in 2009), it reduces the level of COVID-19 fatality rate by 2.63%. The
contribution here expands the knowledge in these research topics by
endeavoring to clarify primary causes of vulnerability of countries in
crisis management driven by high levels of government gross debt, which
deteriorate socioeconomic systems with stringent austerity policies that
create constraints to increase health expenditures and improve health
planning, reducing preparedness and resilience of countries to face
crises similar to COVID-19 pandemic.