Abstract
Potential subdivision events in populations can have a wide range of
causes: from natural disasters like bushfires that isolate communities,
to anthropogenic disturbances like infrastructure projects cutting
through a population’s habitat. Due to the unpredictability inherent in
events like bushfires, or even for predictable events such as property
development, populations affected by these potential subdivisions are
often not studied until after the event, making it extremely hard to
assess negative conservation impacts without the benefit of prior data.
This paper aims to apply population genetics methods to assess whether
it is possible to accurately assess the impact a potential subdivision
event can have on the genetic makeup of a population, especially when
one has no data prior to such an event. Differentiation measures, such
as Fst, might be used for detecting whether a population has been
subdivided. However, these measures often take dozens of generations to
show a significant change from zero (i.e., no differentiation),
especially in larger populations. In this paper we present a more
sensitive method, which is suitable for detecting subdivision effects
within a few generations of the event and which can be applied without
prior data. We test this method using both simulated data, and genetic
data from a population of koalas impacted by a railroad infrastructure
development.