Comparison of Wind Speed Forecasting Models for Power Reserve Scheduling
in the Congested Transmission Network
Abstract
Due to its stochastic nature, wind energy imposes unprecedented
challenges on the power grid, and a properly scheduled reserve is
essential to accommodate wind power’s intermittency and volatility. Many
power reserve scheduling studies have considered the uncertainties of
the renewable energy integration but few address how different wind
speed forecast techniques influence the scheduling of reserves in the
congested transmission networks. In this paper, three forecasting
techniques: artificial neural network, autoregressive integrated moving
average, and probability distribution function-based model are adopted
to forecast one day of wind speed at Taylor, TX in 2012. To evaluate the
impacts of the forecast techniques on power reserve scheduling, a
stochastic reserve optimization model was developed to ensure the
delivery of reserve in the event of transmission congestion and ramping
constraints. A modified RTS-96 test system was employed and the results
claim that different forecast models significantly affect the amount of
scheduled up and down reserves in a stochastic reserve optimization
problem. The level of operating reserve that is induced by wind is not
constant during all hours of the day. Dynamic up and down reserves will
be needed with a large scale of wind farm integration.