Impacts of changing climate on the distribution of migratory birds in
China:habitat change and population centroid shift
Abstract
Climate changes has been shown to be related to the changes in the
distributions of migratory species, which irreparably harms
biodiversity. In this study, we evaluated the habitat change and
population centroid shift for 7 orders and 23 different species on the
IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural
Resources) Red List of migratory birds from 2014-2017 in current to
mid-21st (2041-2700) century by Maximum Entropy method (MaxEnt) model.
We found striking spatial variation in the suitability in geography,
with Yangtze River basin losing 9.74% of suitable habitat and Pearl
River basin losing 13% of habitat. The area of suitable habitat
decreases over 3% of total habitat area in China under the RCP2.6, and
decreases about 10% of total habitat area in China under RCP8.5
scenario, with the population centroid of habitat moving about 50 km to
northeast on average. Furthermore, the suitability of migratory birds
will decrease over 3% in future, which will be difficult for migratory
birds to survive. The direction and distance of population centroid are
different for every species. Most of the individual species in the study
will move over 50 km and all the species will move towards to places
with higher suitability. For the whole of China, the constraint for
migratory birds is t_min. The dominant variable in southeast China is
NDVI, and the northern China is altitude (alt). The decline in suitable
habitat area and shift in population centroid will lead to the changes
in the time and distance of migration process, resulting in more adverse
conditions for the survival of migratory birds. Our study proves the
adverse role of climate change in species distribution which is a
prerequisite for protecting species in future.