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The Predictive Capability of Conditioned Simulation of Discrete Fracture Networks using Structural and Hydraulic Data from the ONKALO Underground Research Facility, Finland
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  • Thomas Williams,
  • Pete Appleyard,
  • Steven Baxter,
  • Lee Hartley,
  • Lasse Koskinen,
  • Raymond Munier,
  • Jan-Olof Selroos,
  • Outi Vanhanarkaus
Thomas Williams
John Wood Group Plc

Corresponding Author:thomas.williams2@woodplc.com

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Pete Appleyard
John Wood Group Plc
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Steven Baxter
John Wood Group Plc
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Lee Hartley
Golder Associates UK Ltd
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Lasse Koskinen
Posiva Oy
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Raymond Munier
Svensk Karnbranslehantering AB
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Jan-Olof Selroos
Svensk Karnbranslehantering AB
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Outi Vanhanarkaus
Posiva Oy
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Abstract

Discrete fracture network (DFN) models provide a natural analysis framework for rock conditions where flow is predominately through a series of connected discrete features. Mechanistic models to predict the structural patterns of networks are generally intractable due to inherent uncertainties (e.g. deformation history) and as such fracture characterisation typically involves empirical descriptions of fracture statistics for location, intensity, orientation, size, aperture etc. from analyses of field data. These DFN models are used to make probabilistic predictions of likely flow or solute transport conditions for a range of applications in underground resource and construction projects. However, there are many instances when the volumes in which predictions are most valuable are close to data sources. For example, in the disposal of hazardous materials such as radioactive waste, accurate predictions of flow-rates and network connectivity around disposal areas are required for long-term safety evaluation. The problem at hand is thus: how can probabilistic predictions be conditioned on local-scale measurements? This presentation demonstrates conditioning of a DFN model based on the current structural and hydraulic characterisation of the Demonstration Area at the ONKALO underground research facility. The conditioned realisations honour (to a required level of similarity) the locations, orientations and trace lengths of fractures mapped on the surfaces of the nearby ONKALO tunnels and pilot drillholes. Other data used as constraints include measurements from hydraulic injection tests performed in pilot drillholes and inflows to the subsequently reamed experimental deposition holes. Numerical simulations using this suite of conditioned DFN models provides a series of prediction-outcome exercises detailing the reliability of the DFN model to make local-scale predictions of measured geometric and hydraulic properties of the fracture system; and provides an understanding of the reduction in uncertainty in model predictions for conditioned DFN models honouring different aspects of this data.