Neural Network model for classification of net CO2 fluxes scenarios in
Tapajós Forest, in Amazon
Abstract
The Amazon rainforest has a great influence on the global energy balance
and carbon fluxes, responsible for the net removal of approximately 4
million tons of carbon per year, via photosynthetic activity. Climate
change and deforestation have impacts on the carbon budget in Amazonia,
transforming CO2 sink areas into sources. Given the complexity of the
factors that govern the carbon exchange in the Amazon and its influence
on biological processes, the use of Data science strategies can promote
a better understanding about the main environmental factors for
different scenarios, and also, assist in public policies to mitigate the
global warming effects. This study aims to identify the environmental
factors that determine the temporal variability of carbon exchanges
between the biosphere and the atmosphere in the Tapajós National Forest,
in the Amazon, applying Data Science strategies in an integrated set of
environmental data from energy and carbon fluxes and remote sensing
data. The specific objective is to assess the influence of a selected
set of environmental variables on the variability of carbon exchanges,
with the use of an artificial neural networks classification model to
identify the variables with great impact on source, sink and neutrality
scenarios in Tapajós National Forest. Data Science strategies were
applied to an integrated dataset of ground-based carbon flux
measurements and remote sensing data, considering the period between
2002 and 2006. An artificial neural network (ANN) classification model
was developed to identify the environmental variables with great impact
on carbon source, sink and neutrality conditions. The average global
score of ANN model was 65%. It was possible to identify the predictor
variables with greatest impact to the carbon sink condition: radiation
at the top of the atmosphere, sensible and latent energy fluxes and leaf
area index. Thus, the ANN model with an ensemble of Data Science
strategies can improve a better understanding of variability CO2 fluxes
and be a powerful tool to promote new knowledge.