Abstract

The Arctic is undergoing profound environmental change at a time of increasing geopolitical interests in the region. Loss of the Arctic Ocean's sea ice cover is one of the most prominent signatures of global climate change. As a direct result of the sea ice loss is the increasing Arctic accessibility, in particular maritime shipping traffic. While the near-term future of maritime routes is uncertain, a polar route has the potential to reduce transit times of traditional shipping routes by up to two weeks. In addition, opportunities for potential resource extraction and expanding Arctic tourism offer new economic prospects for some of the US and Canada's most isolated northern communities. This research investigates the statistical relationship between navigational conditions and maritime traffic in the Arctic. Specifically, this research utilizes an eight-year observational dataset of Arctic vessel traffic from 2013 to 2020, together with sea ice and atmospheric reanalysis products, to understand the linkages between observed maritime vessel traffic and sea ice and environmental changes. The figure shows a heat map of the vessel traffic during the studied period. Spatial features and temporal trends of the Arctic vessel traffic are analyzed. Their correlation with navigational conditions like sea ice concentration, wind waves, and sea surface temperature will be modeled and quantified using Machine Learning algorithms. This policy and security-relevant research will improve our understanding of recent and future Arctic environmental change and its impacts on maritime transport.