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Greater than averages: how metrics of extreme weather are trending differently than averages would suggest
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  • Cameron Lee,
  • Omon Obarein,
  • Scott Sheridan,
  • Erik Smith,
  • Ryan Adams
Cameron Lee
Kent State University Kent Campus

Corresponding Author:cclee@kent.edu

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Omon Obarein
Kent State University Kent Campus
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Scott Sheridan
Kent State University Kent Campus
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Erik Smith
Kent State University Kent Campus
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Ryan Adams
Kent State University Kent Campus
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Abstract

Upon the backdrop of steadily rising global average temperatures, it is the extreme weather events that are arguably more important and impactful than changing averages – especially on human health. This research examines trends in North America of three different parameters of extreme temperature events important to human thermal comfort and public health: their frequency, duration, and spatial extent. Most of the changes are expected; that is, with warmer temperatures there are more frequent extreme heat events that are lasting longer and covering more area. However, we highlight some intriguing divergences from this pattern. For example, despite quickly rising autumn temperatures in northern Canada, a concurrent decrease in temperature variability is resulting in extreme heat events remaining stable and is instead manifest more as significant decreases in extreme cold events. In parts of the western US, even though there is no significant trend in autumn mean temperatures, there is a significant rise in extreme cold events. And, in the southern High Plains in summer, despite little trend in averages, a more negative skew to the distribution is nonetheless leading to significant increases in heat events. Seasonal and geographic variability in the trends of extreme dew point events is also explored. For example, increases in extreme humidity events are ubiquitous throughout most of Canada, particularly in summer; but the US has a northeast (increasing humid events) to southwest (increasing dry events) dichotomy that is strongest in winter. While such nuances might complicate our efforts to broadly generalize the message of climate change, these distinctions suggest a renewed emphasis on local- to regional-scale analyses (rather than larger scales) when providing actionable climate information for planners and policymakers.