Abstract

Proper assessment of the economic risk from hazards is an important prerequisite toward enhancing resilience and is often overlooked or underestimated in importance. This research describes a method of assessing risk due to extreme cold temperature, hail, lightning, and tornado in 2050, utilizing projections from well-respected model output, with Louisiana as a case study. Our approach improves upon previous hazard risk assessments by considering the magnitude of the exposed population in weighing the property loss. This makes the approach her preferable over previous risk assessments. Furthermore, the present research uses current model projections to estimate changes in future conditions of the hazard presence. Finally, our use of downscaled data to the census-block circumvents the complications of examining hazards at the county level, particularly in cases for which population is unevenly distributed in the county. Results suggest that extreme cold temperature and tornado are by far the costliest of the four hazards in terms of property loss, although tornado loss is inherently difficult to project due to the unpredictable nature of individual tornado paths. Both extreme temperatures and hail are projected to decrease in loss as temperatures warm, especially in the New Orleans area, where population may decrease. The lightning hazard, while small and likely underestimated due to assignment of lightning damage to the phenomena in which it is embedded, is projected to increase, both on an absolute and per capita basis. Our results can assist environmental planners in protecting life and property, while also promoting hazard resilience and environmental, economic, and social sustainability.