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Emerging Spatiotemporal Patterns of Trends of Extremes in Indian Summer Monsoon
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  • Karisma Yumnam,
  • Ravi kumar Guntu,
  • Aman Kumar,
  • ANKIT AGARWAL
Karisma Yumnam
Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee

Corresponding Author:starsyyumz@gmail.com

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Ravi kumar Guntu
Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
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Aman Kumar
Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee
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ANKIT AGARWAL
Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
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Abstract

Understanding spatiotemporal patterns and trends of Indian Summer Monsoon extremes have always been an important task mostly because the impacts of extreme events have an enormous effect on agriculture, economy, life and eco-system. In general, findings from the exploration of extreme events with limited data will have high uncertainty, and it is important to investigate the trends with a high long-term dataset for improved understanding of extreme events. Further, the patterns and interactions become further unusual, unexpected and unpredictable, coupled with the existing challenges of global warming-induced climate change. Hence, the study was primarily prompted by these realizations and an implied aspiration to quantify spatiotemporal patterns and trends of Indian Summer Monsoon extremes. In the present study, Extreme rainfall is defined in three categories, namely severe (99th percentile), very high (95th percentile) and high (90th percentile) during the monsoon season in each year. The temporal changes in extreme rainfall have been detected over the period 1901–2019 using non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests, respectively. The analysis revealed significantly intensifying rainfall magnitudes in Jammu and Kashmir, parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Peninsular India. The outcomes indicate that the magnitudes of extreme rainfall are likely to increase in future in these regions. On the contrary, Central and some regions of North-eastern India shows deceasing trends in the extreme rainfall significantly. Consistency of the trends, both temporally and spatially has been explored considering three time windows with an overlap of 10 years. The findings of the temporal evolution of extreme rainfall reveal spatiotemporal pattern is not consistent in different periods of the study. The results of the present study will provide an improved understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of the daily rainfall extremes during the Indian summer monsoon.